Competitive CO₂ strategy EU 2020+

SD modelling for a competitive CO₂ strategy in Europe 2020+ - System-Dynamics Model and Customer Choice in post 2020 regulatory options

Duration: 2016 - 2018

Project Partners: Ford AG, Ford Research Center (Aachen)

Project:

In order to evaluate policy options concerning the regulation of CO₂ emissions of passenger cars beyond the year 2020, a previously developed System Dynamics model will be revised and extended to reflect the European market situation and competition environment adequately. Concerning the market situation, the policy options of a choice of European markets (EU-5) in terms of regulations and incentives will be considered in the model. This will provide a basis to evaluate varying political scenarios on national and European level and interconnected, to analyze customer behavior and preferences. To model competitive markets within the European automobile industry, potential competitor strategies will be identified. Therefore, the effects of political measures, individual consumer choices and competing companies are taken into account. Integrating all aspects mentioned above and their associated interdependencies will enable the model to serve as a tool for decision support and to analyze potential post 2020 scenarios. The scenarios will cover information on market diffusion of varying drive train technologies, fleet emissions and the probability to comply with political targets depending on the manufacturers’ strategy and thus allow the determination of Ford’s long term competitive CO₂ strategy.